# Bank of Thailand holds rate at 1.00%, cuts tourist forecast by 1 million

> The BOT kept its policy rate at 1.00% on 28 October 2026 and cut its foreign tourist forecast to 32.0 million for 2026 and 34.5 million for 2027.

The Bank of Thailand kept its policy rate at 1.00% on 28 October 2026. The rate
is the part that did not change. The bank's forecast for foreign tourist arrivals
did change: it fell by one million for 2026 and by one million for 2027. The
bank says "the number of foreign tourist arrivals is expected to decline amid
higher oil prices".

## The rate stayed at 1.00%, as in June and August

The Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to keep the rate at 1.00%. One
member could not attend. Don Nakornthab, Secretary of the committee, announced
the decision in Press Release No. 41/2026, dated 28 October 2026. This was the
fifth meeting of 2026. The rate was held at 1.00% in June, August and October;
see [BOT holds its policy rate at 1.00% in June 2026](/news/bot-holds-policy-rate-june-2026).

The release says the Thai economy "continues to gain momentum on the back of the
technology and artificial intelligence (AI) cycle". It also says growth stays
below potential and the benefits stay concentrated. Private consumption is still
held back by high household debt, a fragile job market and weak purchasing
power, mostly among low-income households.

## The forecasts that moved

The bank published new projections in its press-conference deck on 28 October
2026. The chart compares them with the deck from the 24 June 2026 meeting.

```chart
type: comparison
title: Bank of Thailand projections, June vs October 2026
columns: ["June 2026", "October 2026"]
rows:
  - metric: "GDP growth 2026 (%)"
    values: ["2.3", "2.4"]
  - metric: "GDP growth 2027 (%)"
    values: ["1.8", "2.1"]
  - metric: "Foreign tourists 2026 (million)"
    values: ["33.0", "32.0"]
  - metric: "Foreign tourists 2027 (million)"
    values: ["35.5", "34.5"]
  - metric: "Headline inflation 2026 (%)"
    values: ["2.8", "2.1"]
  - metric: "Headline inflation 2027 (%)"
    values: ["1.4", "1.3"]
highlight: 1
source: "Bank of Thailand, MPC press conference decks 3/2026 (24 June 2026) and 5/2026 (28 October 2026)"
```

Other figures from the October deck:

- Foreign tourists: 33.0 million in 2025 (outturn), 32.0 million forecast for 2026, 34.5 million for 2027
- Tourism receipts: ฿1.4 trillion in 2025, ฿1.5 trillion forecast for 2026, ฿1.6 trillion for 2027 (the same 2026 and 2027 figures as in June)
- Dubai crude oil: US$69.4 a barrel in 2025; assumed US$93 for 2026 (June: US$90) and US$76 for 2027 (June: US$80)
- Core inflation: 1.2% forecast for 2026, 1.3% for 2027
- Private consumption growth: 2.3% forecast for 2026 (June: 2.6%), 1.7% for 2027 (June: 1.4%)

These are forecasts, not results. If the 2026 forecast holds, Thailand would
receive fewer foreign tourists this year than in 2025.

## Loans and the baht

The release says overall credit growth has picked up, driven by loans to large
companies, and that SME loans continue to contract. The 28 October
press-conference deck adds that retail loans grew at a subdued pace. Borrowing costs on private-sector loans have stayed broadly stable and in
line with the policy rate. Loan quality is stable overall, but the bank is
watching the ability of SMEs and vulnerable households to repay. These are
national lending figures. They say nothing specific about mortgages, foreign
buyers or Phuket.

The baht has weakened against the US dollar. The bank links this to market
expectations of a tighter US monetary policy and to higher oil prices amid
concern over the Middle East. A weaker baht changes what a baht-priced property
costs in another currency, but the release gives no exchange rate.

## What it may mean for Phuket property

An unchanged policy rate means no change in the benchmark that bank lending
costs follow. It does not set any bank's mortgage rate. Lenders set their own
terms, so a buyer who plans to borrow needs a dated term sheet from the lender.
Nationally, credit growth comes mostly from loans to large companies, while SME
loans contract and retail loans grow slowly. See [[mortgage-foreigner-thailand]] for how foreigners finance a
purchase.

For owners who rent out a Phuket condo or villa, rental-income plans rest on
arrivals, so the tourist forecast is one factor to watch, next to the rate. The bank now expects
one million fewer foreign tourists in 2026 than it did in June, while it keeps
its tourism receipts forecast at ฿1.5 trillion. See [[rental-yields-phuket]]
for how yields are worked out, and [[phuket-buying-guide]] for the wider buying
process.

## What is still unknown

All of these figures are national. The bank gives no figure for Phuket arrivals,
hotel occupancy, rents or sale prices, and its numbers do not show how a cut in
national arrivals will spread across destinations. Beyond higher oil prices, the
release gives no reason for the lower tourist forecast. The release also names
risks it will watch: inflation from oil prices and El Niño, the Middle East
conflict, the repayment ability of SMEs and vulnerable households, and the
effect of low interest rates on long-term financial stability.

The next data points are the monthly arrival counts and the committee's next
meeting, which the Bank of Thailand's 2026 MPC schedule sets for Wednesday
23 December 2026.