Thailand took in 20.94 million foreign arrivals over the first eight months of 2026, 3.1% fewer than the same period of 2025. The Ministry of Tourism and Sports (MOTS) published the preliminary August count on 1 September 2026. A separate MOTS release, published 19 August 2026, tracks accommodation and visitor revenue by province through July — and Phuket’s numbers moved the same direction: occupancy down, foreign visitor numbers down, revenue down.
Neither release is Phuket-specific in isolation. Read together, they are the clearest official signal so far that the island’s rental and hospitality market cooled slightly against a strong 2025.
Confirmed figures and source dates
National arrivals, January–August 2026 against the same months of 2025 (MOTS preliminary count, published 1 September 2026):
- Total foreign arrivals: 20,935,135, down 3.1% from 21,599,453
- August alone: 2,515,319, down 2.6% from 2,583,638
- China: 3,543,272, up 16.0%
- Malaysia: 2,658,686, down 11.9%
- India: 1,536,770, down 0.04% (essentially flat)
- Russia: 1,179,872, down 0.6%
- South Korea: 769,930, down 24.8%
Phuket, January–July 2026 against the same months of 2025 (MOTS accommodation and visitor-revenue-by-province release, published 19 August 2026):
- Occupancy rate: 75.56%, down from 77.30%
- Total visitors: 8,098,059, down 1.5% from 8,223,470
- Foreign visitors: 5,954,671, down 2.6% from 6,110,978
- Thai visitors: 2,143,388, up 1.5% from 2,112,492
- Total visitor revenue: ฿310,962 million, down 0.7% from ฿313,226 million
- Foreign visitor revenue: ฿287,170 million, down 1.0% from ฿290,170 million
- Thai visitor revenue: ฿23,791 million, up 3.2% from ฿23,056 million
Both MOTS releases label the current-year figures preliminary (P) and the year-ago figures revised (R); the agency may adjust the 2026 numbers when it revises them later.
Who is affected
Owners renting out condos and villas short-term on the island, and buyers underwriting a purchase against a projected rental yield that assumes last year’s occupancy holds.
Thai domestic visitors are propping up part of the island’s revenue: Thai visitor spending in Phuket rose 3.2% even as the foreign side fell, which is why total revenue slipped less than foreign visitor revenue alone.
What it may mean for Phuket property
A 1.7-point drop in occupancy and a 1% dip in foreign visitor revenue are modest on their own, but they are a reason to stress-test a rental-yield projection built on 2025’s numbers rather than assume this year repeats them.
The nationality trend worth watching is the gap between Russia and China. Nationally, Russian arrivals held nearly flat while Chinese arrivals rebounded 16% — the opposite direction from Origin Property’s own disclosed Phuket buyer mix, in which Russian buyers were the developer’s largest group — one company’s snapshot, not an island-wide count (see Origin’s Phuket buyers are mostly Russian). Arrivals and buyers are different populations: MOTS counts tourists entering the country, the Origin figures count people who bought a unit, and a shift in one is not evidence of a shift in the other. Neither MOTS release breaks the nationality figures out by province, so it is not yet possible to say whether Chinese demand is returning to Phuket specifically or concentrating elsewhere in Thailand.
For yield assumptions, see the rental yields guide; for how a rental-pool contract handles a soft season, see the rental pool programs guide.
What remains unknown
Phuket’s August 2026 province-level occupancy and revenue are not yet published — the province series runs about a month behind the national arrivals count, so the most recent Phuket figures available are for July.
Neither release breaks Phuket’s visitor or revenue figures out by nationality, so the national Russia/China shift cannot be confirmed at the province level from this data alone.
Both 2026 figures are preliminary and both revenue figures are nominal baht, not adjusted for inflation.
