The Bank of Thailand kept its policy rate at 1.00% on 28 October 2026. The rate is the part that did not change. The bank’s forecast for foreign tourist arrivals did change: it fell by one million for 2026 and by one million for 2027. The bank says “the number of foreign tourist arrivals is expected to decline amid higher oil prices”.
The rate stayed at 1.00%, as in June and August
The Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to keep the rate at 1.00%. One member could not attend. Don Nakornthab, Secretary of the committee, announced the decision in Press Release No. 41/2026, dated 28 October 2026. This was the fifth meeting of 2026. The rate was held at 1.00% in June, August and October; see BOT holds its policy rate at 1.00% in June 2026.
The release says the Thai economy “continues to gain momentum on the back of the technology and artificial intelligence (AI) cycle”. It also says growth stays below potential and the benefits stay concentrated. Private consumption is still held back by high household debt, a fragile job market and weak purchasing power, mostly among low-income households.
The forecasts that moved
The bank published new projections in its press-conference deck on 28 October 2026. The chart compares them with the deck from the 24 June 2026 meeting.
Other figures from the October deck:
- Foreign tourists: 33.0 million in 2025 (outturn), 32.0 million forecast for 2026, 34.5 million for 2027
- Tourism receipts: ฿1.4 trillion in 2025, ฿1.5 trillion forecast for 2026, ฿1.6 trillion for 2027 (the same 2026 and 2027 figures as in June)
- Dubai crude oil: US$69.4 a barrel in 2025; assumed US$93 for 2026 (June: US$90) and US$76 for 2027 (June: US$80)
- Core inflation: 1.2% forecast for 2026, 1.3% for 2027
- Private consumption growth: 2.3% forecast for 2026 (June: 2.6%), 1.7% for 2027 (June: 1.4%)
These are forecasts, not results. If the 2026 forecast holds, Thailand would receive fewer foreign tourists this year than in 2025.
Loans and the baht
The release says overall credit growth has picked up, driven by loans to large companies, and that SME loans continue to contract. The 28 October press-conference deck adds that retail loans grew at a subdued pace. Borrowing costs on private-sector loans have stayed broadly stable and in line with the policy rate. Loan quality is stable overall, but the bank is watching the ability of SMEs and vulnerable households to repay. These are national lending figures. They say nothing specific about mortgages, foreign buyers or Phuket.
The baht has weakened against the US dollar. The bank links this to market expectations of a tighter US monetary policy and to higher oil prices amid concern over the Middle East. A weaker baht changes what a baht-priced property costs in another currency, but the release gives no exchange rate.
What it may mean for Phuket property
An unchanged policy rate means no change in the benchmark that bank lending costs follow. It does not set any bank’s mortgage rate. Lenders set their own terms, so a buyer who plans to borrow needs a dated term sheet from the lender. Nationally, credit growth comes mostly from loans to large companies, while SME loans contract and retail loans grow slowly. See 外国人能在泰国申请按揭贷款吗？2026年指南 for how foreigners finance a purchase.
For owners who rent out a Phuket condo or villa, rental-income plans rest on arrivals, so the tourist forecast is one factor to watch, next to the rate. The bank now expects one million fewer foreign tourists in 2026 than it did in June, while it keeps its tourism receipts forecast at ฿1.5 trillion. See 普吉岛租金回报率——投资者的实际收益 for how yields are worked out, and 外国人在普吉岛购买房产——完整指南 for the wider buying process.
What is still unknown
All of these figures are national. The bank gives no figure for Phuket arrivals, hotel occupancy, rents or sale prices, and its numbers do not show how a cut in national arrivals will spread across destinations. Beyond higher oil prices, the release gives no reason for the lower tourist forecast. The release also names risks it will watch: inflation from oil prices and El Niño, the Middle East conflict, the repayment ability of SMEs and vulnerable households, and the effect of low interest rates on long-term financial stability.
The next data points are the monthly arrival counts and the committee’s next meeting, which the Bank of Thailand’s 2026 MPC schedule sets for Wednesday 23 December 2026.
